A crystal ball and a prayer – LGPS Bulletin 37

David Davison

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Employers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland LGPS will be bracing themselves for the results of the March 2019 actuarial valuations which should be landing in the inbox shortly (Scottish employers have another year to wait). So, what are they likely to see?

Asset returns have been positive over the period which will have a positive impact on the funding level, all other things being equal. Inflation is also broadly unchanged over the period. There was some optimism around mortality rates although an announcement of a fall in deaths in 2019 has potentially put something of a damper on that.

However, that’s likely to be all the good news. Gilt yields have continued to fall from just below 2.3% in 2016 to around 1.6% in 2019 placing a higher value on liabilities. Gilt yields have continued to fall subsequently with yields down around the 1.0% level now.

The big issues likely to make an impact are likely to be legislative ones. These valuations will see the incorporation of additional liabilities related to GMP equalisation. In July we also witnessed the Government being defeated in the McCloud case with speculation this could cost Funds billions of pounds. The case found that the Government had forced younger members of the Judges and Firefighters schemes to join less valuable schemes while older colleagues were protected by transitional arrangements providing them with valuable additional benefits. The Government was not granted leave to appeal so steps will now have to be taken to rectify the problem. The LGPS has similar transitional protections.

These issues will likely increase liabilities and therefore funding costs.

The uncertainty created is also likely to hit exiting employers and will result in uncertainty around the impact for employers providing out-sourced services who may be left ‘holding the baby’.

Many schemes had been going through a cost cap review which suggested they may have to increase the level of benefits being provided (as there was a cost surplus), however these deliberations were deferred awaiting the impact of these changes.

Employers may have to brace themselves for further cost increases with no real viable route to escape. Hopefully the LGPS England & Wales Consultation will look at offering some additional flexibilities and a more equitable exit basis. Fingers crossed.

David Davison

Post by David Davison

Specialist consultant on pensions strategy for corporate, public sector and not for profit employers

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