Brexit – An Actuarial Perspective

Angela Burns

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At the time of writing, on 29 March 2019 the UK will exit the European Union with or without a deal.

It is not possible to guess what will happen in the coming months and how markets will react. For Trustees with defined benefit pension schemes it’s an uncertain time.

The risks that Brexit poses are not new – they are the same risks that pension schemes face every day. Brexit just provides an increased chance of unlikely events.

So how should Trustees prepare?

In December 2015 the Pensions Regulator introduced guidance for Integrated Risk Management confirming that Trustees should consider risk at a holistic level. The three main areas of risk are ‘Funding’, ‘Covenant’ and ‘Investment’. Trustees should consider the main risks faced by the scheme across all three areas and more importantly how they interact. Trustees should also have in place contingency plans setting out actions that will be undertaken to limit the impact of risks should they materialise.

Brexit is effectively a ‘test’ of how well Trustees have implemented the Pensions Regulator’s proposals. A Trustee board with a robust IRM framework will be well placed to deal proactively with risks as they emerge.

It is important during times of volatility that Trustees have access to timely and accurate information to make quick, informed decisions. Trustees should ensure that their advisors are well placed to provide regular information in the lead up to, and after the 29 March 2019. Any delays in information provision will add to risk exposure.

Trustees should also have access to scenario analysis tools to determine the impact of certain events – for example a 1% p.a. fall in gilt yields. This will allow the Trustees to specify more robust and accurate actions when considering contingency plans.

Trustees with valuation dates on or around 29 March 2019 should consider the potential impact of this and may decide that the valuation date should be moved. In my view, there is sufficient flexibility in the funding regime to take a long term view on funding, and taking a snap shot of the funding position at a single point in time should not drive funding decisions.

In times of volatility, Trustees should monitor transfer value requests and any other member events where actuarial factors are used. If, for example, extremely low gilt yields result in high transfer values, the Trustees may choose to delay the provision of transfer values to see if the low gilt yield environment persists.

Trustees should also consider any employer exercises offering member options and when these options may be exercised.

Trustees may wish to disinvest funds in advance to allow for any ‘known’ payments on or around March to avoid disinvesting in inopportune conditions.

From an actuarial perspective planning is key, and a good IRM framework should result in quicker decision making.

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