At the time of writing there has been a confirmed 34,800 deaths from Covid-19 in the UK, with around 246,000 confirmed live cases.
I recently attended a Webinar run by Prudential (The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality) which had some interesting insights into the current situation and its future impact.
Covid-19 is a global pandemic that has drastically changed our way of life.
- As individuals, we are wondering where the end point will be so that we can resume some form of normality and see our friends and family.
- As pensions professionals, we are trying to understand this disease in detail to form a view on whether it will significantly affect rates of mortality and hence the ultimate cost of pension provision.
- For schemes seeking an insurance solution (buy-in/buy-out), we are also trying to understand if it will significantly affect predictions about future mortality, and therefore impact on insurance premiums.
A recent bulletin produced by the CMI confirmed 56,000 to 63,000 registered deaths above what would be expected at this time of year based on 'standard' mortality tables. The CMI has confirmed increases of 58%, 116% and 144% (over what would be ‘expected’) in week 18, 17 and 16 of the pandemic respectively. If individuals die sooner than expected, then pension payments cease earlier, and the cost of provision is lower.
How will this impact scheme funding?
Actuarial valuations are carried out every three years. It is unlikely that a new valuation would be commissioned (out-with the three-year cycle) to simply allow for the effect of Covid-19. What we will likely see is a lower liability than expected, on average, at the next actuarial valuation, all other things being equal, as benefits have ceased earlier than expected due to Covid-19 deaths. The impact will be greater for younger deaths, with any liability 'gain' reducing as the member ages and nears their ‘expected’ date of death.
There are around 10m members of defined benefit schemes in the UK and so the numbers of deaths at this point is relatively small in proportion. Given that most Covid-19 deaths are individuals age 65 and over, the average impact is also expected to be small. Schemes with a working-class population may see a larger than average impact as deaths are higher for lower socio-economic groups. However, the impact is still expected to be minor on average.
What should we assume going forward?
At this stage, the future impact of Covid-19 is unknown. It could ‘burn out’ (where the surviving population are strong enough to resist it), we could develop a vaccine, or it could continue to come in waves like the seasonal flu. The latter may result in an increase in long-term mortality rates, with the former resulting in reversion to ‘pre Covid-19’ mortality, or even a reduction in mortality rates to allow for anti-selection (where the remaining population are considered ‘healthier’ than the pre Covid-19 population). It is very early to estimate the long-term impact and data is being analysed every day as it is received. Overall, I don’t think we have any reason at present to be making drastic changes to our funding plans.